The First Tranche

Welcome to the First Tranche, the AidData blog--a forum for analysis and discussion of information about development finance, and how it can be used to improve development practice and research. The First Tranche publishes independent views and analysis from a variety of bloggers who are interested in aid transparency, aid effectiveness, and better/more accessible aid information.
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The First Tranche | a blog by the staff of AidData

Wednesday, September 29, 2010


Grassroots Monitoring and Aid Effectiveness: Does Greater Community Involvement Matter?

The following post was written by Brad Parks, an AidData Principal Investigator, and one of our research assistants, Anca Cretu (William and Mary '11).


There is growing evidence that in many developing countries a substantial percentage of public funding for sectors such as health, education, and infrastructure never reaches the intended beneficiaries. Some reports suggest that less than a quarter of funding is received. One group of researchers from the World Bank found that during the mid-1990s only 22% of public funding for school supplies actually reached Ugandan schools. More recently, the Indian government admitted that only 15% of its funding for employment programs reaches the intended beneficiaries. Estimates of "leakage" -- and methods for calculating it -- vary widely, but there is no question that corruption, mismanagement, and local capture substantially diminish the impact of international aid and other types of public sector financing.

How can the donor community reduce leakage and increase the impact of aid? Transparency and grassroots monitoring are often cited as powerful remedies. The World Bank's 2004 World Development Report proposes “putting poor people at the center of service provision: enabling them to monitor and discipline service providers, amplifying their voice in policymaking, and strengthening the incentives for service providers to serve the poor." This very simple idea -- that local community members have strong incentives to track how funds are being spent in their own localities, but need detailed public expenditure information and political space to conduct an effective oversight role -- has become increasingly popular. Advocates point to a whole slew of new studies in Kenya, Brazil, Uganda, and India:
Martina Björkman of Bocconi University and Jakob Svensson of Stockholm University provide particularly compelling evidence. In 2004, they collaborated with the World Bank to design and implement a randomized field experiment in 50 Ugandan communities. "In the experiment, local NGOs facilitated village and staff meetings in which members of the communities discussed baseline information on the status of health service delivery relative to other providers and the government standard. Community members were also encouraged to develop a plan identifying key problems and steps the providers should take to improve health service provision. The primary objective of the intervention was to initiate a process of community-based monitoring that was then up to the community to sustain and lead." Here's what they found after one year:
  • Treatment communities became more engaged and more closely monitored their health service providers.
  • The practices of health service providers improved significantly in the treatment communities (e.g. increased childhood immunization, improved examination procedures, lower waiting times, lower rates of absenteeism).
  • The weight of infants improved and under-5 child mortality declined by 33% in the treatment group.
  • Utilization for general outpatient services was 20% higher in the treatment facilities.
However, there are also reasons to doubt the efficacy of social auditing initiatives. Some scholars warn that the process of community monitoring may be subject to "elite capture." John Sidel of the London School of Economics reports that in Indonesia "economic and political power at the regency, municipal, and provincial levels ... appears to be associated with loosely defined, somewhat shadowy, and rather fluid clusters and cliques of businessmen, politicians, and officials." Scott Fritzen of the National University of Singapore has conducted an evaluation of community-driven development initiatives in 250 Indonesian sub-districts and concluded that "elite control of project decision-making is pervasive." Another group of researchers affiliated with MIT's Poverty Action Lab has evaluated community monitoring interventions in India's primary education sector. They find that, despite significant information disclosure, "community members did not know what they were entitled to, what they were actually getting, and how they could put pressure on the providers."

What then should policy-makers, practitioners, and researchers take away from the existing body of literature? Here are our take-aways:

1) Grassroots monitoring does work in some settings and in some cases it can yield enormous development gains.

2) We need more evidence on the conditions under which community monitoring improves development outcomes. For example, it could be the case that grassroots monitoring is more effective in countries with higher levels of internet or mobile phone penetration. It could also be the case that the civil liberties and media freedoms play a role in determining whether there is sufficient "political space" to sound the alarm when service providers are not delivering. There could also be a supply side dimension: Are domestic CSOs with a significant local presence more effective than international NGOs at mobilizing and coordinating individuals? Are donors, local NGOs, and service providers disclosing the right kinds of information in the right formats (posters, newspapers, mobile phones, internet)?

In its newly-released MDG strategy, the Obama administration underscores the importance of "fund[ing] applied research by supporting local, national, and global research networks working on key problems related to the MDGs." This strikes us as a particularly promising area for applied research that could have an enormous impact on MDG goals related to public service delivery.

3) Those of us who are interested in the prospects for crowd-sourcing aid information need to begin asking hard questions about "necessary and sufficient conditions." We'd encourage readers of this blog to keep an eye out for further discussion of what motivates individuals and institutions to crowd-source information. AidData and BYU's Political Economy & Development Lab are hoping to soon launch a randomized control trial that will test some key hypotheses related to crowd-sourcing effectiveness.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010


India opens up its aid tap


Last week, Laura Freschi had a great post over on AidWatch on the Indian response to the withdrawal of British aid, where she mentioned the rise of India as a donor in its own right. This issue has gotten other attention recently, from both the Wall Street Journal and Canada's International Development Research Centre.

Here at AidData, we've been working hard over the last few months to track down project level information on Indian aid. As Laura pointed out, the Indian aid apparatus is still forming, and no central agency has been established. However, we have been able to collect some very basic project level statistics from outcome budgets published by the Ministry of External Affairs and Ministry of Finance. These documents give brief descriptions of EXIM loans, technical assistance, and direct grants to developing countries. Most of the data bears out what others have reported, that India is primarily focused on its neighbors, including Bhutan, Afghanistan, and Nepal, but also highlights less-intuitive recipients like Ghana and Sudan.




The sectoral breakdown (made possible by our incredible staff of RAs) shows that India has primarily focused on power. transportation, and industry. However, we suspect that many of the projects that we left coded as multi-sector due to the brevity of the descriptions encompass smaller-scale education, health, and social projects.



We're actively pursuing better data from the relevant offices and departments in the Indian government that will allow us to calculate the grant element of loans, provide more detailed purpose codes, and possibly run pilots in geocoding and crowdsourcing. Obviously, any help that any of you users could give us here would be most welcome.
Finally, here's the full list of India projects in AidData:

Wednesday, September 15, 2010


Aid Shocks Likely Cause Armed Conflict

The following post was written by Dan Nielson, an AidData PI at Brigham Young University, and Tara Candland, a BYU graduate now working as a consultant for Development Initiatives.


In 1990, Tuareg rebels launched a civil war against the Malian government that lasted six years and killed hundreds of people. Greed, grievances, ethnic tensions, climate stress, and government failure all contributed. But it turns out that foreign aid – or rather its sudden disappearance – provided the spark that set the tinder ablaze.

Tuareg nomads had become accustomed to receiving aid to offset drought and desertification in the 1970s and 1980s. But in 1989 the aid dried up quite suddenly, the government lost its ability to appease the Tuareg, and the rebels took up arms.

This pattern of violence following aid shortfalls seems to be a recurring pattern globally. In a forthcoming article to appear in the American Journal of Political Science, lead authors and AidData veterans Richard Nielsen (Harvard) and Michael Findley (BYU), along with Zachary Davis (BYU) and the two of us, found that severe decreases in foreign aid – what we call “aid shocks” – significantly heightened the probability of armed conflict in recipient countries.

Those familiar with the extant political science literature can take a look at the manuscript but for the rest of us, the logic is still relatively simple. Recipient governments at times divert significant shares of foreign aid – which in some countries exceeds all other sources of government revenue – to bolster military strength. Such strengthened armies ought to deter rebellion. In addition, recipient governments can use aid to make side payments to buy acquiescence from potential rebels. In either situation, when a sudden, unexpected aid shock occurs, the balance of power shifts in favor of the rebels, creating an opportunity for the rebels to strike.

But war is expensive both in monetary and human terms, and rarely do the benefits outweigh the high costs. What is more, both governments and rebels generally know this fact. So why not simply negotiate a new accord that favors the relatively strengthened rebels?

We argue that any such deal simply would not prove credible. Donors may renew foreign aid flows in the future, and the newly strengthened governments would then face strong incentives to renege on the old agreement. Foreseeing this, rebels should reject any deal from governments in the face of aid shocks and take the opportunity to strike while the government is relatively weak.

The evidence for this pattern is strong. Coupling AidData with the Uppsala conflict statistics, we paired the recipients that experienced aid shocks with nearly identical countries that did not. Using this “matching” method, we could treat the data much more as if it were the result of an experiment rather than simple statistical observation.

The results give us greater confidence that aid shocks actually cause armed conflict. And they also persuade us that donors are not merely reducing aid in anticipation of future violence.

We even find that the patterns hold when we set the threshold for aid shocks anywhere between the 10th and 25th percentiles. That is, when we define aid shocks as the most severe 10 percent of negative downturns in aid and below, and when we set it relatively high at the most negative 25 percent of shocks and below, we get statistically similar results.
The estimated effect of aid shocks with different percentile cut-offs used to define shocks

So how can we stop these aid shocks and possibly prevent violence? The implication is clear: foreign aid needs to be made more transparent and more consistent so that recipient governments can plan their expenditures, and donors should be more aware of the dangers of withdrawing aid suddenly, particularly in countries already prone to violent conflict. Much debate has raged over whether or not foreign aid is effective at achieving development results. But our research suggests that, even if aid proves entirely ineffective at relieving poverty or promoting economic growth, withdrawing it suddenly might lead to violent conflict.

Monday, September 13, 2010


New MDG Strategy Document Signals USG Commitment to Aid Transparency

The following was written by Brad Parks, an AidData Principal Investigator and Research Associate at The College of William and Mary...

One week from today, President Obama is expected to deliver a major speech on U.S. global development policy at a United Nations Summit on the Millennium Development Goals. There is much
speculation about whether the President's speech will coincide with the release of the State Department's long-awaited Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review (QDDR). However, those chomping at the bit to gain some initial insight into the administration's priorities should read the new USG strategy to meet the MDGs.


Several excerpts stand out as promising signals of the Obama administration's commitment to aid transparency, data collection, and the use of innovative technologies (e.g. crowd-sourcing and geo-referencing tools):
"Innovation, which is at the heart of the strategy, can be a powerful force multiplier when combined with other investments. Drawing on America’s long tradition of development through innovation, we will increase funding for applied research, expand access to effective existing technologies and practices, build learning partnerships, stimulate innovation in partner countries, and expand global access to knowledge."
"We will support efforts to improve our ability to track progress on the MDGs, including the World Bank’s Mapping for Results effort to develop interactive mapping of the Goals. The initiative will provide information at the sub‐national level to allow tracking of the relationships between aid flows, public expenditures, and poverty and other development indicators such as infant mortality and life expectancy."
"Our commitment to sustainability and innovation will be underpinned by a relentless commitment to measuring results. To this end, we will upgrade our institutional capacity to monitor and measure development outcomes, as well as support and learn from centers of best practice in evaluation. We will ensure that our presidential initiatives have strong monitoring and evaluation functions, and we will continue to call for the same in the multilateral organizations we support. We will help sponsor new methods and data collection initiatives to improve how we measure progress toward the MDGs."
"We will support principles to strengthen the ability to track, monitor, and report on progress by making donor commitments clearly defined, results‐oriented, and time bound. These principles are central to the credibility of mutliateral fora, just as commitments to good governance are essential for the credibility of partner governments. The G8 Accountability Report in 2010 was critical step forward, and one on which we intend to build. Meanwhile, we will put in place a new framework on aid effectiveness to guide our efforts. We will start by launching a major aid transparency initiative. In collaboration with U.S. agencies, other donors, and partner governments, we will identify the most appropriate timelines and channels to disseminate country‐level information about aid flows. After undertaking country pilots, the approach may then be scaled up. We will also seek to establish common reporting frameworks and develop an Aid Dashboard that allows stakeholders to visualize U.S. foreign assistance investments by geographic area or sector, see the details of specific projects, and track trends over time.
We are very excited to see that the USG recognized the value of Aiddata's "Mapping for Results" partnership with the World Bank. This strategy document is also good news for people interested in aid transparency and aid effectiveness. If the USG gets on the aid transparency bandwagon, it could be a huge boost for the International Aid Transparency Initiative and broader efforts to strengthen the feedback loop between donors and intended beneficiaries. We look forward to seeing more concrete plans from the Obama administration.

Thursday, September 2, 2010


South-North Cooperation? Hurricane Katrina and the US as an aid recipient


As many of you know, we here at AidData have made it a priority to pursue information on emerging donors and South-South Cooperation partners. We've seen how Arab donors can have a huge impact in a single country, or how Brazil is leveraging comparative advantages from its own experience to assist other developing countries. But there's one unique case that stands out from all the rest, allowing us to add a new donor and a new recipient in one blow.

Last year, we stumbled across the Qatar Katrina Fund, which was established a few weeks after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast 5 years ago this week. The government of Qatar allocated $100 million to health, education, and housing projects across the Gulf Coast. Not only did they allocate the money, but they were transparent through the entire process, publishing extensive project descriptions, maps, and audits of their work.

You can view these projects through the AidData Search Result Widget right here. Hopefully the benefit of the Fund's work will go beyond its immediate grantees and serve as another demonstration of the power of transparency.